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arXiv:2606.01217v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by challenges in communication and behavior. This study examines the relationship between ethnicity and ASD traits, along with behavioural scores, sex and neonatal jaundice across three ethnic groups: White Europeans, Asians, and Middle Eastern individuals. We perform a logistic regression and show that ethnicity ..
arXiv:2606.01340v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We ask: when do Bayesian model averaging (BMA) weights over decision trees carry sufficient epistemic information to justify committed exploitation of the averaging distribution? We answer this question in closed form for Bayesian decision trees (BDTs) with Dirichlet-Multinomial leaf models and a Catalan-exponential tree-size prior (Schetinin&Jakaite, 2025), establishing a complete non-asym..
arXiv:2606.01432v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate modeling of leaf spectral reflectance from physiological and biochemical traits is essential for advancing remote sensing applications in plant science and precision agriculture. Widely used radiative transfer models, such as PROSPECT-PRO, rely on generalized trait-reflectance relationships developed from a wide range of species, which may not fully capture the spectral behavior of....
arXiv:2606.01457v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian optimization is a popular way to optimize expensive systems, where every experiment, simulation, or intervention costs time or money. In its standard form, it treats the variables we control as plain inputs to a black box and cannot tell apart mere correlation from a real cause and effect. Causal Bayesian optimization closes part of this gap by using a known causal graph together w....
arXiv:2606.01496v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quasar variability, driven by multi-scale physical processing within a relativistic accretion disk, is commonly modelled with stochastic time series models. The simplest of these is the Damped Random Walk (DRW), also known as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Here, we demonstrate that, when fitting such a model to quasar light curve data, the mean of the light curve, $\mu$, should not be....
arXiv:2606.01521v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A central problem in machine learning is that models can achieve near-perfect training performance while generalizing substantially less well to unseen examples. This gap is especially acute in high-dimensional, low-sample regimes, where many interpolating solutions exist and optimization must implicitly select among minima with different generalization properties. Following recent theoreti....
arXiv:2606.01525v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Semi-supervised hierarchical clustering aims to learn a tree structure consistent with data patterns and user-provided supervision. Supervision is usually given as leaf-level relations, such as pairwise must-link/cannot-link constraints or triplet-wise must-link-before constraints. Although useful for regulating local sample relations, such supervision does not directly indicate which sampl....
arXiv:2606.01619v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Agentic reinforcement learning (RL) enables LLM agents to improve continuously from environment rewards, yet the resulting policies do not systematically accumulate reusable strategies that generalize across tasks. Modular skills can provide such reusable strategies, yet existing skill-augmented RL methods decouple skill creation from policy optimization, risking adopting skills that confli....
arXiv:2606.01650v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider the problem of estimating the true Sharpe ratio of an asset selected for having the highest observed in-sample Sharpe ratio among many assets. We discuss estimators based on the polyhedral lemma, James Stein shrinkage, debiasing the expected maximum Sharpe ratio, thresholding and empirical Bayes. We test these estimators in simulations, computing bias and root mean square error ....
arXiv:2606.01655v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The Bayesian paradigm offers principled tools for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but its reliance on a probabilistic model for all parameters can hinder the incorporation of complex structural constraints. We introduce a minimalist Bayesian framework that places a prior only on the location of the optimum, while eliminating nuisance parameters through profile likelihood. This..
arXiv:2606.01659v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper explores policy learning from observational data, focusing on a nonlinear welfare criterion in a binary treatment setting. The nonlinear criterion is inspired by scenarios where policymakers prioritize specific population segments. We model this criterion using a utility function that encompasses potential outcomes and intermediate parameters, with the latter capturing higher mom....
arXiv:2606.01661v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Biological neurons receive thousands of synaptic inputs on branching, electrically excitable dendrites, yet population activity is often modeled with direct input-output rules in which each input contributes independently to a scalar drive. We study what successful prediction by such models does, and does not, reveal about neural computation. For conditional maximum-entropy models that matc....
arXiv:2606.01760v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Statistical models in high-energy physics formally encode the relationship between observed data, physics parameters of interest, and experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Likelihood-based inference is the central tool for precision measurements, effective field theory fits, and cross-analysis combinations. Consequently, there is an increasing need for machine-readable, descriptive, a....
arXiv:2606.01799v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study $N$-armed stochastic dueling bandits under the Condorcet-winner assumption, where three widely adopted objectives are considered: best-arm identification (BAI), weak regret, and strong regret. We propose Tree-Guided Identify-Then-Exploit (TG-ITE), the first unified framework to tackle all these objectives to our knowledge. Without requiring stronger assumptions, we propose a shared....
arXiv:2606.01827v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) has established itself as a powerful and widely adopted optimizer for training machine learning models. By explicitly minimizing the sharpness of the loss landscape, SAM often improves generalization while delivering strong empirical performance. However, SAM and its variants, like most training algorithms, are sensitive to the choice of learning rate, whi....
arXiv:2606.01954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Implicit-process priors define distributions over functions through flexible generative mechanisms, making them attractive for Bayesian function-space modelling. However, performing posterior inference with such priors is challenging because their induced function-space distributions are typically not available in closed form. One practical strategy is to approximate the prior using a finit....
arXiv:2606.02055v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study exact community recovery in the two-community stochastic block model on $n$ vertices under limited and noisy access to network data. The learner may query a noisy neighborhood oracle that reveals each true neighbor of a queried vertex independently with fixed probability and never returns non-neighbors, subject to a finite query budget. We consider both oracle-only access and a com....
arXiv:2606.02081v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Robust optimization offers a tractable approach to balance operating costs and reliability in power systems dominated by weather-dependent renewable uncertainty, but its performance depends critically on the uncertainty set. Standard data-driven approaches often calibrate uncertainty sets to attain predictive coverage, which can produce unnecessarily large sets and costly operating decision....
arXiv:2606.02106v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a single classification pipeline that combines an Equiangular Tight Frame (ETF) preprocessing stage with a tabular foundation model for in-context inference, applied identically across modalities once data is mapped to fixed vector representations. We evaluate it on 95 datasets spanning seven signal modalities -- vision, audio, speech, text, molecular, time-series, and tabular. T....
arXiv:2606.02223v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Estimating the generative mechanism of large-scale networks is a fundamental challenge in statistical machine learning. It requires the identification of the latent connectivity structure, which is in general an NP-hard combinatorial problem due to the absence of canonical node labels. We address this challenge by allowing for probabilistic couplings, thereby relaxing the assignment problem....
arXiv:2606.02234v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper clarifies the identifying assumptions underlying causal inference based on treatment changes rather than treatment levels, and their relationship to conventional identification strategies. We characterize two distinct structural models, with non-nested identifying assumptions, under which treatment-change identification is valid conditional on observed covariates. We demonstrate ....
arXiv:2606.02286v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The deterministic incompressible Navier-Stokes equations are physically incomplete: any viscous fluid at finite temperature must exhibit thermal fluctuations whose form is dictated by the fluctuation-dissipation relation. We formulate the stochastic Navier-Stokes equations with the kinematically selected deformation Laplacian on compact Riemannian manifolds with strictly negative Ricci curv....
arXiv:2606.02340v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Paired-comparison data are naturally represented by tournaments, where transitivity corresponds to the existence of a global ranking consistent with all pairwise outcomes. Accordingly, the classical Kendall-Smith coefficient of consistency measures deviations from transitivity in a tournament by counting the number of circular triads (directed $3$-cycles). In this paper, we characterize the....
arXiv:2606.02351v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular and effective approach for tuning expensive, noisy experiments, but requires the formulation of an explicit objective function. Preferential BO (PBO) removes this requirement by learning from pairwise human feedback, yet existing methods struggle to efficiently optimize beyond low- and medium-dimensional problems due to their global search approaches.....
arXiv:2606.02363v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study sequential decision-making in partially observable environments against strategic, adaptive opponents, modeled as partially observable Markov games (POMGs). The central challenge is to learn latent dynamics from partial observations while facing an adversary whose behavior depends on the learner's strategy, making standard regret notions inadequate. We prove that an epoch-based opt....
arXiv:2606.02382v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern command, control, communications, computers, cyber, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C5ISR) environments place substantial attentional demands on mission commanders. Failures in attention allocation in these high-risk settings can have severe operational consequences. This study investigates the efficacy of gaze-driven, attention-guided adaptive decision support tools,....
arXiv:2606.02455v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Molecular dynamics (MD) is a key tool for simulating the dynamical behavior of atomic systems. However, MD is inherently serial, which makes it difficult to increase single-system throughput with concurrent compute. To address this, we introduce Langevin Speculative Dynamics (LSD), a distributed and model-agnostic speculative sampler for accelerating MD without adding relative error. Inspir....
arXiv:2606.02472v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce and study a new model of correlated uniform attachment (UA) trees, where correlation is sprinkled throughout the time evolution of the process. In this model, two UA trees are grown in parallel, and at each time step a new node is added to each tree, with an edge between it and a uniformly chosen existing vertex in the respective tree. The two choices of attachment are correlat....
arXiv:1606.04182v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper proposes a novel method to estimate the rate parameter of the Poisson distribution. The proposed method employs the Cramer-von Mises type optimization which has been commonly used in estimating parameters of continuous distributions. Upon obtaining the estimator through the proposed method, its desirable properties such as asymptotic distribution and robustness are rigorously i..
arXiv:1902.07030v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of numerical simulators aims at studying the global impact of the input uncertainties on the output. To perform the GSA, statistical tools based on inputs/output dependence measures are commonly used. We focus here on dependence measures based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces: the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion denoted HSIC. Sometimes, the pro....
arXiv:2110.11074v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many statistics problems are formulated within an estimating equation framework instead of a minimization framework. However, the regularized estimating equations (REE) have been much less extensively studies than regularized minimization problems. In this paper, we study an improved regularized estimating equation formulation and explore its subsequent equivalences in terms of (1) fixed-..
arXiv:2209.00102v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The human brain distinguishes speech sounds by mapping acoustic signals into a latent perceptual space. This space can be estimated via multidimensional scaling (MDS), preserving the similarity structure in lower dimensions. However, individual and group-level heterogeneity, especially between native and non-native listeners, remains poorly understood. Prior approaches often ignore such v....
arXiv:2211.04697v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Sensitivity analysis for the unconfoundedness assumption is crucial in observational studies. For this purpose, the marginal sensitivity model gained popularity recently due to good interpretability and mathematical properties. However, most existing models only consider a worst-case parameter that bounds the logit difference between the observed and full data propensity scores, which may....
arXiv:2410.14483v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reliable uncertainty quantification for causal effects is crucial in high-stakes applications, but remains challenging when the target is an entire function rather than a scalar estimand. In this work, we introduce a GP-based approach for uncertainty quantification of interventional functions. The central idea is to build on recent work representing interventional functions as an inner-pr....
arXiv:2411.03383v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: How hard is it to estimate a discrete-time signal $(x_{1}, ..., x_{n}) \in \mathbb{C}^n$ satisfying an unknown linear recurrence relation of order $s$ and observed in i.i.d. complex Gaussian noise? The class of all such signals is parametric but extremely rich: it contains all exponential polynomials over $\mathbb{C}$ with total degree $s$, including harmonic oscillations with $s$ arbitra....
arXiv:2412.05998v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Motivation: The gut microbiome shapes cancer therapy response through its influence on host metabolism. While prior studies examine pairwise associations between individual genera and metabolites, there is limited methodology for identifying microbial genera that systematically regulate the overall metabolome. Scalable statistical tools are needed to uncover such system-level 'master pred....
arXiv:2412.06528v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In Bayesian statistics, the highest posterior density (HPD) interval is often used to describe properties of a posterior distribution. As a method for estimating confidence intervals (CIs), the HPD has two main desirable properties. Firstly, it is the shortest interval to have a specified coverage probability. Secondly, every point inside the HPD interval has a density greater than every ..
arXiv:2501.18798v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials opened a new scientific frontier by showing that passively administered monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) could prevent HIV-1 acquisition. Conducted across multiple geographic regions, including the United States, Brazil, Peru, Switzerland, and sub-Saharan Africa, the AMP trials revealed substantial regional heterogeneity in t....
arXiv:2503.11583v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm uses a compound proposal with multiple candidate draws to improve local sampling efficiency. While several methodological works have continued to develop MTM and the multi-candidate mechanism that characterizes it, the literature lacks a unified comparison of these components. This paper presents a structured formulation of MTM within the involu....
arXiv:2504.06108v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal inference in connected populations is complicated by contagion and other real-world processes inducing dependence among outcomes. We address a gap in the literature on causal inference under contagion: while there is a growing body of work on estimating causal effects under contagion, little is known about how contagion impacts causal effects and inference. We provide insight into ....
arXiv:2504.21688v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Racial disparities in healthcare expenditures are well-documented, yet the underlying drivers remain complex. This study develops a framework to decompose such disparities through shifts in the distributions of mediating variables, rather than treating race itself as a manipulable exposure. We define disparities as differences in covariate-adjusted outcome distributions across racial grou....
arXiv:2505.19925v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The sample covariance matrix is a cornerstone of multivariate statistics, but it is highly sensitive to outliers. These can be casewise outliers, such as cases belonging to a different population, or cellwise outliers, which are deviating cells (entries) of the data matrix. Recently some robust covariance estimators have been developed that can handle both types of outliers, but their com....
arXiv:2505.20893v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Existing causal methods for time-varying exposure and time-varying confounding focus on estimating the average causal effect of a time-varying binary treatment on an end-of-study outcome, offering limited tools for characterizing marginal causal dose-response relationships under continuous exposures. We propose a scalable, nonparametric Bayesian framework for estimating marginal longitudi....
arXiv:2506.02075v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The current state of evaluation in survival analysis is plagued by the persistent use of evaluation metrics in ways that are misaligned with the stated modeling objective. In addition, many such evaluations are based on censoring assumptions that are left implicit or unjustified. This means that the reported performance can be misleading and may fail to answer the scientific or modeling q....
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